Ethereum has been on shaky ground this year. Mounting competition from both layer-1 and layer-2 blockchains has put pressure on the network, while ETF outflows have added to the selling pressure. Despite the upcoming Pectra upgrade, investors seem largely uninterested, keeping ETH’s price in a downward spiral. A closer look at the charts reveals crucial levels that could dictate Ethereum’s next big move.
Ethereum’s Weekly Chart Spells Trouble
Ethereum’s weekly chart isn’t looking too friendly for the bulls. A triple-top pattern has emerged at the $4,000 mark, with price rejection occurring in March 2024, May 2023, and November 2023. This repeated failure to break higher suggests investors aren’t comfortable bidding beyond that level.
The neckline of this pattern sits at $2,138. A confirmed break below this level typically signals further downside. And guess what? Ethereum has already slipped under it, reinforcing the bearish case.
One more troubling sign: ETH has dipped beneath the long-term ascending trendline that had supported price action since July 2022. In the past, this trendline acted as a strong bounce zone, but this time, the breakdown suggests a shift in sentiment.
Then there’s the moving average story. Ethereum is trading below both the 50-week and 200-week moving averages—an undeniable bearish signal. If we measure the distance from the triple-top’s peak to its neckline and project it downward, ETH could be heading toward $1,140.
A single sentence to sum it up? The weekly chart suggests Ethereum isn’t out of the woods yet.
Daily Chart Signals More Pain Ahead
Zooming in on the daily chart, Ethereum has found some footing after hitting $1,763. It climbed back to $2,130 but remains trapped under the 50-day moving average. That’s a red flag—bears are still in control.
Even more concerning is the bearish flag pattern forming. This setup usually consists of a sharp drop (flagpole), followed by a brief consolidation (flag), before another big leg down. If ETH follows this script, a breakdown could be imminent.
Adding fuel to the fire is a rising wedge pattern, where price action is squeezed between two upward-sloping trendlines. Rising wedges often lead to bearish breakdowns, and if ETH follows through, the first stop could be back at $1,763.
A sustained drop below $1,763 could open the floodgates for even deeper declines.
On the flip side, a decisive push above $2,500 would challenge the bearish outlook.
A run past $2,500 wouldn’t just invalidate the current setup—it could set the stage for ETH to reclaim $3,000. But at this point, the bearish case remains stronger.
Market Sentiment and the Pectra Upgrade
Ethereum isn’t just battling technical resistance—it’s also facing fundamental headwinds. The network has been losing ground to faster and cheaper alternatives, while institutional money is flowing out of ETH ETFs.
The Pectra upgrade, which aims to improve efficiency, has barely moved the needle in terms of price action. This lack of enthusiasm suggests that traders are more concerned about broader market trends than Ethereum’s technical enhancements.
That said, upgrades can take time to be priced in. If Ethereum starts seeing higher adoption or new bullish catalysts emerge, sentiment could shift. For now, however, the market isn’t buying into the hype.
Key Levels to Watch
Ethereum is at a make-or-break point. Here’s what traders should keep an eye on:
| Key Level | Significance |
|---|---|
| $2,500 | Break above this could flip the trend bullish |
| $2,138 | Neckline of the triple-top pattern |
| $1,763 | Last major support level before further downside |
| $1,140 | Bearish target if breakdown continues |
Right now, the bias leans bearish, but markets can surprise. Will Ethereum defy expectations, or is there more downside ahead? The next few weeks could be crucial.
