The price of Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) has taken a beating, much like many other cryptocurrencies this year. After hitting a local high, the token has plunged by over 50% and now trades at just $0.20. But hold on — all may not be lost.
There are a few solid reasons to think a rebound might be in the cards. From a ballooning stablecoin supply to confident investor behavior and favorable chart patterns, the stars are starting to align for HBAR.
Stablecoin Activity Hints at a Healthy Hedera Network
Here’s something interesting: the total stablecoin market cap on the Hedera network has been quietly, steadily climbing. And not just inching up — we’re talking about explosive growth.
In January 2024, the market cap of USDC on Hedera was around $38 million. Just a year earlier, it was a mere $6.8 million. Fast forward to now, and we’re looking at a whopping $182 million in stablecoins sloshing around the network.
That kind of growth doesn’t happen in a vacuum.
• Stablecoin growth reflects increased adoption
• Higher on-chain liquidity improves dApp functionality
• Signals more users transacting on Hedera, not less
These aren’t just vanity metrics. In crypto ecosystems, stablecoins act like fuel. They’re the dry powder people use to move fast and deploy capital. A rising supply usually means users see value in sticking around.
Investors Aren’t Selling — They’re Stashing
While HBAR’s price has been stumbling, holders aren’t panic-selling. Quite the opposite. They’re pulling their tokens from exchanges and tucking them away in private wallets.
CoinGlass data shows over $18 million worth of HBAR exited exchanges just in the past two weeks. Since January, more than $100 million has been pulled from centralized exchanges.
That’s a lot of coins no longer sitting on the market ready to be dumped.
This behavior typically reflects bullish sentiment. People only transfer assets into self-custody when they believe those assets will be worth more down the line. In simple terms: they’re in no rush to sell.
It’s the classic “hodl” move.
Also worth noting — moving funds off exchanges limits the available supply, which could help boost price in a supply squeeze scenario.
Chart Patterns Paint a Promising Picture
Technicals aren’t perfect, but they can tell a story. And right now, HBAR’s story is getting interesting again.
In Q1, the token traced out a falling wedge — a setup that traders often associate with bullish reversals. Since then, Hedera has shifted into a broader megaphone pattern, or “broadening wedge,” which suggests potential for explosive upside.
Even better, HBAR’s been holding above its 50-day moving average. That’s not just a number on a chart — it’s often viewed as a line in the sand between strength and weakness.
Some analysts are already pointing to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level as a logical price target. That’s around $0.32, a clean 60% move from current levels.
Let’s take a look at the relevant technical factors in a snapshot:
| Indicator | Signal | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Falling Wedge | Bullish | Suggests trend reversal |
| Broadening Wedge | Bullish Bias | Volatility with upside risk |
| 50-Day Moving Average | Support Held | Buyers stepping in |
| Exchange Outflows | Rising | Confidence among holders |
Market May Be Discounting Hedera’s Momentum
Here’s the kicker — the broader market might just be sleeping on Hedera’s momentum.
With Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other majors grabbing the spotlight, smaller projects like Hedera tend to fall off the radar. But that doesn’t mean they’re not making progress.
Hedera’s unique governance model, anchored by a council of global blue-chip companies, offers a level of institutional credibility many crypto projects can’t touch. Add to that its energy-efficient consensus mechanism and surging stablecoin utility, and you’ve got a protocol that’s ticking boxes — even if it’s not trending on Twitter every other day.
And when overlooked assets start flashing bullish signals? Well, that’s often when the biggest moves happen.
Still Risks, But Watch These Levels
Let’s be clear — this isn’t a guarantee. Crypto markets are moody, and sentiment shifts fast.
If HBAR drops below its 50-day MA or the stablecoin inflows start to reverse, the bullish case weakens. But for now, those things haven’t happened.
Traders will be eyeing the $0.25 mark next. That’s the first hurdle. After that, it’s the $0.32 retracement target. Break above, and you’ve got momentum.
But fall below $0.18, and all bets are off.
