The IOTA token has seen a modest recovery, climbing back above $0.20 as optimism grows in the broader cryptocurrency market. Investors are closely watching the upcoming Rebased upgrade, which promises to overhaul the network’s structure and potentially boost the token’s long-term value.
IOTA’s Rebased Upgrade Could Change the Game
IOTA’s price movement has closely mirrored that of other digital assets, stabilizing after a rough start to the year. But what’s really drawing attention is the anticipated Rebased upgrade, first introduced in late 2024.
The upgrade aims to transition IOTA from its current framework into a fully decentralized blockchain, making it more attractive to developers and investors alike. It will achieve this through a Delegated Proof of Stake (DPoS) model, with at least 150 validators securing the network.
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Staking rewards: IOTA holders, who currently earn no passive income, will start receiving an annual percentage yield (APY) of 6% to 7%.
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Smart contract integration: This will allow developers to build decentralized applications (dApps), potentially positioning IOTA as a competitor to Ethereum and Solana.
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Decentralization shift: Moving away from a centralized structure will increase security and transparency.
While the launch date remains uncertain, a first-quarter release seems unlikely. The upgrade is now expected to roll out in the second or third quarter of this year.
A Lesson from Sonic?
Rebranding efforts in the crypto space have yielded mixed results. Some, like Sonic—formerly known as Fantom—have seen rapid adoption. Others have struggled to gain traction.
IOTA might take notes from Sonic’s strategy, which helped it become a leading layer-1 network in under three months. However, success is far from guaranteed. IOTA’s Shimmer network, which also supports smart contracts, has failed to attract significant assets, with less than $1 million locked in its ecosystem.
For IOTA to truly rival Ethereum or Solana, the Rebased upgrade will need more than just technical improvements—it will require strong developer interest and real-world adoption.
Technical Analysis: Signs of a Reversal?
The IOTA token hit a peak of $0.6385 in December before tumbling to a low of $0.1590 earlier this month. Now, there are indications that the worst may be over.
A falling wedge pattern, a bullish technical signal, has formed on the daily chart. The token has broken above the upper trendline of this pattern, suggesting potential upside.
Oscillators are also pointing to growing momentum:
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The Awesome Oscillator is nearing the zero line, signaling possible upward movement.
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The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) is turning higher, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
If the momentum holds, the next key resistance level to watch is $0.3705, representing a 50% Fibonacci retracement from the December high. That’s about 82% above current levels—a move that would signal a strong recovery for the token.
