The crypto winter hasn’t been kind to Polkadot. From trading near $12 just months ago to barely clinging to $4 now, DOT’s collapse has shaken investor confidence. But not everyone’s writing it off just yet. One analyst thinks a big reversal could be coming—and he’s got the receipts.
A Broken Model Led to DOT’s Slump
Daniel Cukier, a well-known developer and market analyst, says the coin’s recent crash isn’t about sentiment or market mood swings. He calls it structural.
In a nutshell, Polkadot’s previous growth was propped up by its unique parachain auctions. To participate, projects had to buy and lock up DOT tokens for two years. That lockup created scarcity. And scarcity? It drove prices up.
But now those two-year periods are expiring. One after the other.
Some of the projects that locked DOT are folding, and with no strings keeping their tokens locked, they’re dumping them on the open market. That sudden increase in supply is pulling prices lower. And here we are—DOT scraping the floor at $4.
Agile Coretime: A Fresh Start or Just More Hype?
This is where Cukier gets bullish. Polkadot 2.0 introduces something called Agile Coretime. Doesn’t sound sexy—but it might be a game-changer for the token’s demand.
Unlike the auction model, Agile Coretime doesn’t force long-term lockups. Projects no longer need to hoard DOT to win slots.
Here’s how it works:
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Instead of locking up DOT, developers pay as they go.
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Blockspace is sold just-in-time, like grabbing a ride on Uber.
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That means DOT is used more frequently—and importantly, it’s burned in the process.
That last bit matters. If DOT gets burned during use, that reduces the total supply. Lower supply + increasing demand = potential price lift.
“It turns DOT into a real currency for blockspace,” Cukier says. “That creates utility, and utility drives demand.”
Elastic Scaling Could Make Polkadot Blazingly Fast
Speed kills—or in this case, it might resurrect.
Cukier also pointed to another feature in Polkadot 2.0: elastic scaling. It’s basically the network’s way of expanding its capacity based on real-time usage.
Right now, the upgrade is being tested on Kusama, Polkadot’s experimental cousin chain. If all goes well, it’ll roll out on Polkadot soon.
That would mean lower fees, smoother apps, and happier developers. And when developers are happy, they tend to stick around.
Technical Chart Paints a Bullish Picture
Take a look at the charts and there’s something interesting brewing—something called a triple bottom pattern.
That’s not just chart geek talk. It’s one of the more reliable bullish patterns in technical analysis. DOT has bounced around the $3.60 level three times, failing to break lower.
That level has become a fortress.
Bulls see this as a line in the sand. If DOT holds above it, there’s a chance it could swing back toward its previous neckline of $11.77.
Here’s how that plays out in numbers:
| Key Level | Price (USD) | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $4.00 | Oversold territory |
| Support Floor | $3.60 | Triple-bottom stronghold |
| Breakout Target | $11.77 | 192% potential upside |
| Risk Level | Below $3.60 | Bullish thesis breaks |
Why This Time Might Actually Be Different
Cynics will say: “Crypto always has a new upgrade, always has a new promise.” Fair point.
But Cukier’s argument doesn’t just hinge on hope. It’s about how DOT’s use is evolving.
Previously, DOT’s demand was artificial—locked up and static. Now, it could become active and functional. Projects will spend it, burn it, and come back for more.
This constant cycle of use might stabilize price swings and reduce volatility. That’s rare in crypto.
And don’t forget, most of the dump pressure from expired parachain locks could be behind us.
Still, There Are Big Risks
Let’s not sugarcoat it—Polkadot is still swimming upstream.
The crypto market is fragile. Regulations are shifting. Bitcoin’s halving narrative might dominate headlines and leave projects like Polkadot fighting for air.
And just because a new system (like Agile Coretime) is introduced doesn’t mean developers will adopt it immediately. Old habits die hard.
Plus, DOT needs more than tech—it needs users, builders, and real-world demand. Fancy models and optimistic analysts can only carry it so far.
Still, for investors and traders who believe in comeback stories, Polkadot’s chart might just be whispering: “Not done yet.”
