Ripple Eyes Circle as XRP Stalls — What’s Really Going On?

Despite making headlines with the launch of CME XRP futures and speculation of a $5 billion acquisition of Circle, Ripple’s token hasn’t taken off. XRP is still stuck in a holding pattern, trading at $2.37 on Tuesday — down 10% from its recent peak. So, what’s the holdup?

Ripple’s ambitions are growing louder by the week, and the potential buyout of Circle, the issuer of the $33 billion USDC stablecoin, could be a turning point for the entire crypto ecosystem. But if this deal is so big, why isn’t the market reacting like it?

XRP Is Moving Sideways — And That’s Raising Eyebrows

Investors are watching closely, but they’re not biting — yet.

XRP’s current price action feels like a pause, not a panic. Even after all the positive buzz around futures and a possible stablecoin acquisition, traders seem to be waiting for a firm signal.

The token climbed earlier in the week, touching $2.63 before slipping back down. Analysts aren’t too concerned about the dip. This kind of price consolidation, where prices move within a range without a clear direction, often comes before a breakout — up or down.

Some technical signs still flash green. XRP is holding above major exponential moving averages. And on the weekly chart, the cup-and-handle breakout is intact. So why the hesitation?

Ripple + Circle: A Deal With Major Implications

Talks between Ripple Labs and Circle, reportedly involving a $5 billion acquisition price, were first hinted at by BanklessTimes. That figure alone is eye-popping. But what Ripple stands to gain might be worth much more.

If Ripple does acquire Circle, here’s what that could mean:

• It would give Ripple control of USDC, the world’s second-largest stablecoin.

• Ripple could supercharge its RLUSD stablecoin push — which now has a market cap of just $313 million.

• Integration of USDC on the XRP Ledger could drive higher usage and more XRP token burns.

There’s also the bigger picture. Ripple wants to compete directly with the Swift network. Swift moves over $150 trillion annually. To chip away at that, Ripple needs liquidity, credibility, and scale. Circle’s infrastructure and reach would provide all three.

One sentence, but worth emphasizing: this isn’t just about crypto; it’s about global finance.

Futures Launch, ETF Hopes, and Wall Street Whispers

The CME listing of XRP futures was a major moment.

It signaled that institutional appetite for XRP is heating up — even if the price doesn’t show it yet. CME is the same exchange that helped legitimize Bitcoin and Ethereum in the eyes of institutional players.

There’s a bigger narrative unfolding, though. A handful of insiders believe we’re inching closer to an XRP futures ETF, similar to what ProShares did for Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, a surprising twist: Polymarket, the crypto prediction platform, shows that over 80% of bettors believe a spot XRP ETF will be approved. That’s not a guarantee — but it’s telling.

Here’s where things get interesting:

• The XXRP ETF has pulled in over $106 million in assets under management in less than two months.

• Standard Chartered analysts say XRP could hit $6.5 “eventually.”

• Ripple’s legal clarity in the U.S. — following its partial victory against the SEC — is helping solidify its case with regulators.

There’s a real sense among institutional players that XRP has crossed the compliance Rubicon.

The Chart Says One Thing, But Sentiment Says Another

Look at the chart and you’ll see bullishness. Look at the community, and things feel…mixed.

XRP is trading above the 50-week and 100-week EMAs. It’s also cleared the $1.98 resistance — a level it hadn’t held since April 2021. That was the top of the cup-and-handle formation, now broken.

There’s even more optimism in the wave count. XRP is thought to be in Wave 2 of the Elliott Wave structure. That puts Wave 3 next — often the strongest, fastest climb. If that’s correct, the next logical resistance sits at $5.00, or a 115% rally from current levels.

But then there’s the sentiment problem. People are skeptical, cautious. Maybe it’s the SEC hangover. Maybe it’s the general fatigue from years of litigation. Or maybe it’s just market maturity — everyone’s tired of chasing hype.

A Circle Deal Would Shake Things Up — Fast

Ripple’s last major acquisition, Hidden Road, helped the company enter the prime brokerage game — a big move on its own. But Circle? That’s a different level entirely.

Think about it. Ripple’s been building up infrastructure for years. Now, it wants to snap up one of the most critical pieces in the stablecoin ecosystem. USDC is already deeply integrated with exchanges, wallets, banks, and even regulators. It’s stable, compliant, and trusted — especially in the U.S.

Here’s a quick comparison of stablecoin stats:

What’s Next for XRP? Plenty of Firepower Left

Let’s assume the Circle deal doesn’t happen. Is XRP still in play?

Yes. The futures launch alone changes the game. Institutional traders now have more tools to hedge or speculate on XRP. That usually brings liquidity and tighter spreads. It also means more legitimacy.

Plus, there’s a growing belief that spot ETFs are coming — not just for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The SEC is under pressure after recent court rulings and political scrutiny. XRP might be next in line.

And analysts haven’t backed off. That $6.5 price target from Standard Chartered isn’t just a guess. It’s based on adoption models, market structure, and Ripple’s growing footprint in cross-border payments.

So even if the current price is taking a breather, the fundamentals are anything but sleepy.