XRP had a rough week, slipping from $2.50 to a low of $2.06 as Bitcoin and other altcoins took a hit. That marked its first weekly decline since early March, when it fell nearly 30%. The question now is: can Ripple break free from this tight range and climb to $5 before the year ends?
XRP Price Technical Outlook
The weekly chart paints a picture of consolidation. XRP hit $3.40 in January but has since dropped 37% to its current price of $2.12. For months, it has bounced between the $3.40 resistance and $1.90 support levels.
There are some positive signs. The price remains above the 25-week moving average, a key indicator of bullish control. Additionally, XRP is still holding above $1.9035, the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. That suggests short sellers are hesitant to push the price lower.
But there are risks. On the daily chart, XRP has formed a head and shoulders pattern, a bearish setup. The neckline sits at $1.9035, a level veteran trader Peter Brandt recently highlighted as a critical support zone. If XRP breaks below that level, it could trigger a sharper decline.
A neutral stance on XRP’s price seems reasonable for now. If it drops below $1.9035, it could enter a markdown phase, potentially sinking to $1. On the flip side, a rally to $5 would only look likely if the price clears the $3.40 resistance level.
Key Risks and Market Uncertainty
Ripple faces both opportunities and challenges as it eyes a potential move higher. The biggest near-term risk? Market-wide uncertainty fueled by global events.
-
Donald Trump’s potential trade war announcement on Liberation Day could rattle financial markets, hurting riskier assets like XRP.
-
Even positive developments, such as the SEC ending its lawsuit against Ripple, have failed to generate strong price action.
XRP also grapples with inflation concerns. Its circulating supply stands at 58.2 billion tokens, while the maximum supply is 100 billion. A large token supply can act as a headwind for price appreciation.
Could Ripple Disrupt SWIFT and Drive Growth?
Ripple’s long-term growth prospects center on its ability to challenge SWIFT, the dominant player in cross-border payments. SWIFT handles over $150 trillion in annual transactions, but Ripple Labs argues that its technology is faster and more cost-efficient.
With the SEC lawsuit behind it, Ripple may have an easier time securing partnerships with banks and financial institutions. A few key deals could provide much-needed momentum.
Another major development on the horizon is a potential XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF). If the SEC approves it, institutional investors may pour money into Ripple, giving the token a much-needed boost.
Where Does XRP Go From Here?
For now, XRP remains in limbo. It needs a decisive move above $3.40 to shift bullish momentum back in its favor. But if bears take control and push the price below $1.9035, a deeper decline may follow. Traders will be watching closely as the next big move unfolds.
