The crypto world is on edge as Bitcoin slips below $90,000 and the total market cap dips to $3.1 trillion. Investors eye Friday’s Supreme Court ruling on Donald Trump’s tariffs, which could trigger massive refunds and shake up the economy. But that’s not all, US jobs data might add more fuel to the fire.
Crypto Prices Slide Amid Uncertainty
Crypto markets took a hit on Thursday, with Bitcoin dropping below the key $90,000 support level. This marks a pullback from its yearly highs, as sellers stepped in. Ethereum, XRP, Binance Coin, and Solana each fell by more than 1%, pushing the overall market capitalization down to $3.1 trillion.
Traders point to profit-taking after a strong run-up. Many altcoins felt the pain, reflecting broader caution. This downturn comes right before two big events that could swing prices wildly.
The slide isn’t isolated. It’s tied to macro worries, including inflation and interest rates. Investors are now laser-focused on upcoming news that could either deepen the red or spark a rebound.
Supreme Court Ruling Looms Over Trump Tariffs
All eyes turn to the Supreme Court, set to rule on Friday about President Donald Trump’s use of emergency powers for tariffs. These tariffs, imposed on global imports, have raked in billions but face legal challenges.
Prediction markets like Polymarket give a 75% chance the court will strike them down. If that happens, the US government could owe importers up to $150 billion in refunds. That’s based on duties already paid, according to trade experts and recent analyses.
Such a ruling would gut one of Trump’s flagship policies, aimed at protecting American jobs. Yet, it opens doors for alternatives, though those require lengthy Commerce Department probes, making them tougher to pull off.
Businesses brace for chaos. Refunds might flood the system with cash, but the loss of tariff revenue could strain federal budgets. For everyday folks, this means potential shifts in prices for imported goods, from electronics to clothing.
US Jobs Data Adds to the Mix
Friday also brings the latest US non-farm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists expect the economy added about 55,000 jobs in December, down from 65,000 the month before.
A private ADP report on Wednesday showed just 45,000 jobs added, signaling weakness. Polymarket bettors predict between 50,000 and 75,000 jobs, with unemployment ticking down to 4.5%.
A soft jobs number could boost crypto by raising odds for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Fed official Stephen Miran said Thursday he’d back up to 150 basis points in cuts this year if data stays weak.
Here’s what to watch in the NFP report:
- Job growth: Below 50,000 might signal recession fears.
- Unemployment rate: A drop to 4.5% could ease some worries.
- Wage growth: Steady increases might fuel inflation concerns.
These figures matter because they guide Fed policy. Lower rates often lift risk assets like Bitcoin, as borrowing gets cheaper and investors hunt for yields.
How This Could Shake Up Crypto Markets
If the Supreme Court invalidates the tariffs, expect lower inflation pressures. That might push the Fed to cut rates faster, a boon for crypto. Bitcoin and altcoins thrive in low-rate environments, as seen in past cycles.
A weak jobs report would amplify this. It could lead to more cuts, drawing in sidelined capital. Crypto volatility is already spiking, with Bitcoin’s implied volatility at multi-month lows despite $60 billion in open interest.
On the flip side, if tariffs survive, it might stoke inflation and delay rate cuts, pressuring prices further. Traders are betting on turmoil either way.
| Scenario | Potential Crypto Impact |
|---|---|
| Tariffs Struck Down | Bullish: Lower inflation, more Fed cuts, possible market rally |
| Tariffs Upheld | Bearish: Higher inflation risks, delayed rate relief, price dips |
| Weak NFP Data | Bullish: Increases rate cut odds, boosts risk appetite |
| Strong NFP Data | Neutral to Bearish: Might signal fewer cuts, cooling crypto enthusiasm |
This table highlights the key outcomes. Investors should watch Asian markets for early clues, as they often react first to US news.
History shows crypto responds quickly to such events. Last year’s tariff announcements caused sharp dips, but rebounds followed on positive Fed signals.
As the crypto market navigates these waters, everyday investors feel the ripple effects in their portfolios. A favorable ruling and soft jobs data could mean quicker gains, while the opposite might extend the current dip. Traders are positioning now, with some hedging via options to ride the volatility.
In the end, Friday’s double whammy of the Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs and the US non-farm payrolls data could redefine the crypto landscape for 2026. It underscores how tightly woven digital assets are with global economics, offering both risks and opportunities. What do you think will happen to Bitcoin if the tariffs get axed? Share your take in the comments and spread this article on social media. This topic is blowing up on X with #TrumpTariffs trending hot right now, so tag it when you share to join the conversation.
