Cardano’s ADA token is under heavy pressure this month, with whales offloading hundreds of millions of tokens, dampening recovery hopes despite bullish long-term projections.
Whales Drive Cardano Price Drop
Cardano (ADA) has slipped to about $0.68 as mid-October approaches, marking a sharp 23% monthly decline. The slide comes as large holders, often called whales, reduce exposure amid market uncertainty. Blockchain analytics show that over 350 million ADA were sold by major wallets in just one week, up from 40 million earlier this month.
The data suggests that big investors are locking in profits after recent rallies, or reallocating capital to other altcoins offering better short-term yields. Roughly $245 million worth of ADA has left whale wallets, a move that has slowed buying momentum and kept prices capped.
Ali Charts, a crypto market analyst, described the selling trend as one of the most significant rotations seen in Cardano this year. The sustained outflow signals waning confidence among top holders, who often play a decisive role in price direction.
DeFi Cooling Adds Pressure on ADA
Adding to the weakness, Cardano’s decentralized finance (DeFi) activity is showing visible slowdown. Data from DeFiLlama indicates that total value locked (TVL) has slipped to around $310 million, down 5.2% in just 24 hours. That drop represents one of the weakest weekly performances since the first quarter of 2025.
The fall in TVL points to a reduction in liquidity and user participation across Cardano’s DeFi platforms. Lower decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes and reduced lending activity hint that both retail and institutional players are stepping back.
A quick look at recent ecosystem data paints a clearer picture:
| Metric | Value (Oct 16, 2025) | 7-Day Change |
|---|---|---|
| ADA Price | $0.68 | -17% |
| Whale Holdings (100M–1B ADA) | Down 350M ADA | – |
| Cardano DeFi TVL | $310M | -5.2% |
| DEX Volume | $22M daily | -14% |
Analysts suggest that until DeFi engagement recovers, Cardano may struggle to attract new buyers, even if prices look appealing from a technical standpoint.
Technical Outlook: Triangle Pattern Near Break Point
From a technical analysis perspective, Cardano continues to trade inside a large symmetrical triangle pattern that has been forming since early 2024. The upper boundary of this formation lies near $0.90, a level that also aligns with a major Fibonacci retracement zone and previous resistance areas from March and May.
If bulls manage to push ADA above $0.90 and sustain that breakout, price targets between $1.30 and $1.88 come into play, according to measured move projections. But the bullish case remains conditional on renewed volume and stronger on-chain metrics.
In contrast, failure to defend the $0.62–$0.64 support range could expose ADA to another leg down toward $0.55. This level acted as a key support back in July when buyer demand last stabilized the market.
Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), have weakened this week. Market analysts say a recovery may take shape only if whale outflows slow and open interest returns to ADA-linked derivatives.
Mixed Sentiment Among Investors
Investor sentiment around Cardano remains divided. Bulls argue that the ongoing consolidation is healthy and may serve as a base for the next rally. Bears, however, point to a combination of declining liquidity, lower staking participation, and profit-taking behavior that may keep ADA under pressure through the rest of October.
Retail traders are also showing caution. Social media discussions around Cardano have dropped noticeably since early October, signaling fading enthusiasm. Still, long-term supporters emphasize Cardano’s continued development and its expanding list of projects under construction.
Some see the current decline as an opportunity to accumulate before the network’s next upgrade cycle. Yet, others warn that the lack of strong DeFi inflows could delay any sustained rebound.
Broader Market Context
Cardano’s struggles come at a time when the broader crypto market is mixed. Bitcoin has hovered near $62,000, showing resilience despite profit-taking across altcoins. Ethereum has maintained modest gains, while other Layer-1 tokens such as Solana and Avalanche have also seen capital rotation from whales.
The divergence highlights how investor focus has shifted toward ecosystems with higher short-term returns and active DeFi participation. For Cardano, reclaiming momentum will likely depend on renewed whale confidence and visible growth in its application layer.
What Comes Next for ADA
Market watchers will closely monitor the $0.90 resistance zone in the coming weeks. A breakout above that level could mark a trend reversal, while another rejection might keep ADA range-bound or even drive it lower.
Developers continue to advance network updates and scalability solutions, which could attract renewed user interest by year-end. But for now, the market appears to be in a wait-and-see mode, with large investors taking a cautious stance.
In the near term, traders are advised to track whale activity, on-chain volume, and TVL changes to gauge whether Cardano can regain its lost momentum.
Cardano’s path forward depends not only on price action but also on its ability to reignite real utility and network engagement that once positioned it among top blockchain projects.
The coming weeks will test whether ADA’s consolidation leads to recovery or deeper correction. What do you think? Will whales return to support Cardano again? Share your thoughts and join the discussion on social media.
