Toncoin is buzzing again. Hovering near $2.93, it’s showing signs of strength that have traders and analysts leaning in. After a sharp 3.47% gain in the past 24 hours, TON is now sitting just under a key resistance level — and many are betting it won’t be there for long.
It’s not just price action that’s heating up. On-chain data and some trusted technical indicators are stacking up in Toncoin’s favor. And with whales quietly accumulating, some are starting to wonder — is a breakout to $3.25 just around the corner?
Whale Transactions Put TON in Elite Company
Big money is moving in. And it’s not going unnoticed.
According to the latest data from analytics firm Santiment, Toncoin has seen one of the largest spikes in whale activity over the past month. In fact, it ranked fifth on the list, sharing space with major names like Chainlink, GateToken, and USDC.
This kind of spike doesn’t usually happen by accident.
Whale movements are often seen as early indicators — smart money preparing to pounce. When those big wallets start to load up while prices are consolidating, it can mean just one thing: someone expects something big to happen.
Just one sentence here to breathe.
Santiment’s report points out a common pattern. Whales tend to buy during dips or sideways action — often right before price explosions. That seems to be what’s happening here.
The $2.94 Level: Breakout or Breakdown?
Technical analysts are zoomed in on one very specific number: $2.94.
Darco, a crypto analyst who’s gained a following for spotting early setups, says Toncoin is sitting at a major “point of interest.” Basically, this is where price has bounced around in the past — and now it’s testing that level again.
After bottoming out near $2.82 recently, TON’s been grinding back up, staying mostly between $2.82 and $2.94. That tight range is like a pressure cooker. Something’s gotta give.
Darco’s bullish setup outlines a few key things:
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A clean break above $2.94 could turn that resistance into support.
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A retest of that level would likely follow.
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If bulls hold the line, $3.25 could be next.
The risk/reward ratio, as he puts it, is worth paying attention to. From a technical standpoint, the upside is roughly 10%. Not life-changing, but meaningful — especially for short-term traders looking for clean setups.
TD Sequential Signal Adds to Bullish Case
Just days before the current move, another bullish indicator lit up.
Ali (@ali_charts), a well-known crypto analyst on X, flagged a TD Sequential buy signal on Toncoin’s daily chart. For those who follow chart signals closely, this one carries weight.
It appeared on April 11 after several red daily candles — often the perfect setup for a trend reversal.
The TD Sequential tool isn’t magic, but historically, it’s been surprisingly reliable, especially when confirmed by other signals. In this case, rising volume and tightening ranges are doing just that.
One-liner for rhythm: It’s all lining up — but nothing’s confirmed until price moves.
Ali believes the signal suggests TON “could be primed for a rebound,” but he’s cautious too. These signals work best in confluence, not in isolation.
Weekly Chart Still Shows Hesitation
Short-term optimism aside, the weekly chart is waving a few warning flags.
According to TradingView’s technical summary for the TON/USDT pair, the one-week timeframe is still bearish. Out of 24 key indicators:
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13 show “Sell”
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9 are neutral
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Just 2 flash “Buy”
And it gets worse when you zoom in on moving averages.
Out of 13 major weekly MAs, 12 suggest selling pressure still dominates. That’s a red flag for long-term investors — and a reminder that macro trends haven’t quite flipped yet.
But not everything is doom and gloom. Oscillators like the RSI (currently at 36.5) and Stochastic %K (15.6) remain neutral. That means TON isn’t overbought or oversold — it’s still in the “wait and see” zone.
Meanwhile, Williams %R and Momentum indicators are beginning to stir. Nothing definitive, but they’re poking around at levels that sometimes hint at reversals.
A Look at Price Levels and Market Sentiment
Here’s where things currently stand on the chart:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $2.93 |
| 24H Change | +3.47% |
| Resistance Zone | $2.94 |
| Potential Upside Target | $3.25 |
| RSI | 36.5 (Neutral) |
| Stochastic %K | 15.6 (Neutral) |
| Weekly Trend | Bearish |
That $2.94 level is the one to watch — not just for today, but likely for the rest of the week. If bulls can crack it and hold it, this whole setup changes overnight.
But if it rejects again? That could push Toncoin back into the same range it’s been stuck in — and maybe even drag it back down near $2.82.
